Hi, reader!
I want to thank you. I see unread emails (including some other newsletters) in my inbox and recognize the sacrifice of time and attention it takes to read/comment/share my newsletter. It means more than you know!
Thank you!
With that, welcome to the 82nd newsletter! This one is all about Predictions.
A read.
Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock
Those who are in the public view (e.g. newscasters, sportscasters) are typically ineffective predictors of future events.
While many of them do have plenty of expertise, a portion of their energy must be devoted to the entertainment side of their job. While it is nice to get a prediction correct, it can be more important to drive clicks, likes and views.
The best predictors are those who can see from multiple points of view, remove emotion and constantly challenge their own thinking. Many of which do not sit in front of a camera for viewers like us.
They are superforecasters.
A thought.
When I watch people make predictions on TV, I know nothing about their past performance.
I have no idea how often their previous predictions were correct. And most likely, neither do they!
Political Analyst: “Come November, he will be the next president.”
How often have they predicted an election outcome and been right?
Weatherperson: “It’s going to snow tomorrow.”
How often have they said that and it actually snowed?
Stock Market Expert: “This stock will be up 5% next month!”
How often have they made a declaration and it became true?
Sportscaster: “Mark my words, the Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl next year!”
How often have they predicted the correct Super Bowl winner a year in advance?
Often, we take these “experts” at their word. And then form our own opinions or take action based on what they say. Why of course they know! They are public facing for a reason!
If we actually had their prediction record, we might view their opinions a little differently than we do today.
What predictions do you tend to listen to?
A quote.
“Being a weatherperson is the best job on the planet. You can be wrong 90% of the time and still have a job!”
- My Dad (Happy Birthday, Dad. He would have turned 67 today.)